World Economy
 
Aug 3, 2011
how debt deal can effect you

After much drama, lawmakers may have finally settled on a deal to raise the nation's debt ceiling. But for everyone from the retirees figuring out their future to students paying off their debt loads, the work and the headaches have just begun.

Financial advisers and other experts say the full impact of the headline-grabbing bill may not be known for weeks or months, especially with so many more details of the legislation passed yesterday still being worked out and interpreted. But many think it's going to force many folks to rethink everything from their portfolio allocations to their tax movements. Two areas of concern already have emerged: Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries have been spared so far, for example, but experts say seniors could still be hit in phase two of the deficit-reduction plan. Investors, meanwhile, worry that the deal will further drag down the sputtering economy -- and take the stock and bond markets with it. From the standpoint of economic growth, the cuts are "one more thing going in the wrong direction," says Chad Stone, the chief economist for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

In general, most pros recommend against any knee-jerk moves. Still, there are certain areas that are more likely to be impacted than others. Below are seven -- from retirement planning to the fate of the dollar -- that could require new strategies in the months ahead. These are by no means definitive, but think of them as a starting point for how to adjust your portfolio and finances.

Retirement planning. It's not what the bill did -- it's what it didn't do. Namely, it failed to extend the payroll tax cut passed in 2010, "which means unless separate legislation is enacted, workers will see their paychecks shrink in January when they have to start paying an additional tax of 2% on their earnings," says James Horney, vice president of federal fiscal policy for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. (The cut was a one-year relief measure, so take-home pay ought to be about where it was a year ago.) In recent times, strapped workers have made up for their income shortfalls by taking out 401(k) loans: Vanguard reported a 14% uptick in 401(k) loans from 2009 to 2010; T.Rowe Price an 11% increase. And it might be also be tempting to make up for that cash shortfall by contributing less to your 401(k), but that can be a big mistake, says Michael Wall, founder of Wall Financial Group in Altoona, Penn. "It's a compounding effect, so not saving that extra money can have a big impact on your total retirement savings," he says.

Retirement income. For retirees who rely on municipal bonds for income, the cuts are a cause for concern. Any decrease in federal spending will mean less aid for states and local government -- making many already-weak states even more vulnerable to downgrades, budget deficits and layoffs, says Matt Fabian, managing director of Municipal Market Advisors, an independent research group. And while the U.S. dodged a default on its debt, a downgrade by the major credit rating agencies hasn't been ruled out. Such a move would likely lead to lower ratings for several states that are dependent on the federal government, says Chris Ryon, managing director for fund company Thornburg Investment Management. Investors would be smart to spread their bets across all kinds of municipal bonds, focusing less on state general obligation bonds, which are more dependent on federal aid, and more on essential service revenue bonds, or those funded by revenue from water, sewer and electric services, he says.

The dollar. The resolution of the debt crisis brought an immediate rally in the dollar, with the U.S. dollar index rising 0.49% on Monday as a deal seemed imminent, but the rally was already slowing down by Tuesday morning, and the longer-term picture for the greenback isn't so great. For one thing, the deal doesn't appear likely to produce the kinds of savings that Standard & Poor's had said were necessary to avoid a downgrade, according to a report by Camilla Sutton, the chief currency strategist for Scotiabank. The work that remains to be done on the debt problem combined with weak economic growth suggests the dollar will continue to weaken through the end of the year, Sutton writes. That's bad news for travelers, but it could help some investors, says Kate Warne, U.S. investment strategist at Edward Jones. Investors who own stocks or funds in other currencies will see the dollar value of those investments rise if the dollar falls against other currencies, Warne says.

Student loans. The deal is good news for undergrads -- they can still get subsidized federal student loans, which allow them to pay no interest on their loans as long as they're currently enrolled in school more than half-time -- but not such good news for grad students, who can no longer get them as of July 1, 2012. It also went a long way towards funding the shortfall of the Pell Grant program, which helps low- and moderate-income students. But "we're not out of the woods yet," says Pauline Abernathy, the vice president of the Institute for College Access and Success. In fact, the Pell Grant program is still facing a $1.3 billion deficit, she says. To make up for this, Congress may consider changing eligibility for the grants from up to 18 semesters to just 12 semesters, or by increasing enrollment requirements, says Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of FastWeb.com and FinAid.org.

Mortgages and housing. The passage of the debt deal is likely to keep mortgage rates low for now, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president HSH.com, a mortgage information website. But prospective homebuyers could soon find themselves with fewer incentives once the details of the debt deal are ironed out. Lawmakers have been debating a simpler tax system with lower tax rates and fewer tax breaks that could include reducing the generous mortgage tax deduction as part of the long-term spending cuts that must be agreed on this fall, says Brian Gardner, senior vice president at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. The takeaway for prospective homebuyers: Act soon. "If you're kind of thinking about it of course it's always better to move forward more quickly," says Gumbinger. "Right now you're working in known market conditions rather than tomorrow's unknown market conditions."

Your portfolio. Wherever the actual cuts come from, the debt deal is likely to be a drag on the economy: Most estimates suggest that the deal will reduce economic growth by about one-tenth of one percent. Investing pros say the deal itself doesn't radically change their asset-allocation recommendations, but reinforces the need to diversify your portfolio with international stocks and debt. "In a world where growth seems challenged everywhere, we still think diversification is a good thing to do," says Warne, who recommends investors have at least 30% of their stock portfolio in foreign markets, mostly developed, with about a 5% allocation to emerging markets. Stephen Wood, chief market strategist for Russell Investments, urges even more weighting to international: Investors should match their portfolios to the overall makeup of the global economy, which would mean keeping only about 45% of assets here at home.

Health care. Medicare will be protected in the first round of the debt deal, but it looks more vulnerable in phase two, in which a special joint committee is tasked with finding at least $1.2 trillion in additional savings. If the committee cannot do this, Medicare provider payments are scheduled to be automatically cut by up to 2%. If this happens, consumers may find that some doctors will stop accepting Medicare patients and that hospitals will close units, says Mary Johnson, a senior policy analyst for the Senior Citizen's League, a non-profit seniors rights advocate. And in looking for savings, the committee may consider plans like lifting the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 or increasing co-pay amounts, says Joe Baker, president of the Medicare Rights Center.

posted by GreatLondonPubs @ 11:20 AM   0 comments
Aug 2, 2011
Debt, not debt ceiling deadline, is the problem





Balancing the budget using the accounting practices currently used by our legislators is a myth. We the people need to understand the truth. The goverment uses what is refered to as baseline budgeting; from Wikipedia:

"Baseline budgeting is a method of developing a budget which uses existing spending levels as the basis for establishing future funding requirements. The concept assumes that the organization is generally headed in the right direction and only minor changes in spending levels will be required. The baseline is normally enhanced by adding adjustment factors based on issues such as inflation, new programs and anticipated changes to existing programs."

That sure doesn't sound like this is the way we ought to be doing our budgeting.

When you or I cut our budget we actually reduce the amount we spend, if we spend $100 and cut 2 percent we then spend $98. When the government, using baseline budgeting, cuts 2 percent, it first assumes an 8 percent growth rate, so it cuts 2 percent from 108 percent for a total of 106 percent. That is a cut in government spending.

Welcome to the wonderful world of federal accounting, meant to deceive and practiced as an art form by the men and women elected by us to uphold the constitution and represent us.

Remember the debt ceiling deadline is not the problem, the debt is the problem. At this rate in a short time every dollar that comes in will go to service the debt, nothing for anything else.
posted by GreatLondonPubs @ 11:59 AM   0 comments
Jul 29, 2011
it’s time for platinum to start getting the attention

Move over gold and silver — it’s time for platinum to start getting the attention it deserves as a precious metal.

Year to date, gold prices have scored a climb of 14% and silver’s gained 29%. Platinum prices, however, trade just 1% higher, so while gold and silver have proven their worth as stores of value in these uncertain economic times, platinum has been left in the dust.


Reuters

That’s not so tough to make sense of, knowing that investors view gold as a monetary asset and platinum is most well known as an industrial metal. Read about gold’s investment risks.

But “all three metals have a history of money,” said Nick Barisheff, president and chief executive officer of Bullion Management Group Inc. “While gold and silver have been used as money for thousands of years, platinum too has served as an economic store of value for over 300 years.”

Platinum is also worth more than gold and it’s tougher to produce.

At $1,792 an ounce, platinum PL1V -0.52% is worth nearly $200 more than goldGC1Z +0.64% at $1,616 an ounce and it costs 45 times more than silver SI1U +0.45% at $40.

Blue-chip stocks as safe havens

Looking for places to invest in the event of a U.S. credit downgrade or default? Gold and the Swiss franc no longer get all the attention. Shares of dividend-paying U.S.-based global companies deserve a look, says MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert. Interview with Laura Mandaro.

It takes about 10 tons of ore requiring six months of mining to produce a single ounce of platinum, according to Barisheff, who points out that platinum is 30 times rarer than gold. Since 1997, demand for the metal has exceeded mine production and global demand has continued to record highs in 2011.

“Platinum is the rarest of the precious metals and its price reflects this,” said Barisheff.

The metal also offers investors the opportunity to diversify their precious metals holdings.

“The precious metal component of a properly diversified portfolio should include an allocation to platinum,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director at international bullion dealer GoldCore. “Full diversification within the precious metal group is important in order to reduce volatility.”

Besides, “the only asset class that is better than gold as an inflation hedge is a basket that includes silver and platinum,” he said, adding that platinum may even be a better inflation indicator than oil.

And given the scale of currency debasement being seen in the U.S. and globally, platinum’s inflation-adjusted high of about $3,000 an ounce should be reached in the coming years, he said.

Unpopular precious metal

Even so, platinum hasn’t been winning any popularity contests in the precious metals sector lately — at least not as a monetary asset — for lots of good reasons.

James Turk, founder and chairman of GoldMoney, said that of the $1.8 billion of gold, silver, platinum and national currencies held by GoldMoney’s customers, only $15 million is platinum.

“So platinum is not popular,” but it’s also not neglected, he said. “Rather, it is just not liquid nor is the market as deep as gold or silver …. The big hedge funds and other institutions rarely buy platinum because the market is so thin,” said Turk.

And given that it’s a thinly-traded market, it is also the most volatile of the precious metals, said James Carrillo, account executive at precious metals investment firm Swiss America Trading Corporation.

Platinum’s industrial ties can also feed erratic moves.

posted by GreatLondonPubs @ 11:17 AM   0 comments
show must go on

More unemployed managers and executives are deciding to pack their bags and move for a new position, according to a report released this week by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

During the first half of the year, about 9.4% of job seekers relocated for a job, up from 7.6% within the same window of time in 2010, according to the outplacement consultancy firm. That’s from a survey of about 3,000 job seekers; many of the respondents are managers and executives.

“The 9.4% relocation rate in the first half of 2011 is still low by historical standards, but the increase does indicate that job seekers are finally beginning to loosen the stakes that have kept them tethered to a specific region,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in a news release.

“Since there has been little improvement in the housing market in 2011, one might conclude that the increased relocation in the first half of the year is due to the fact that prolonged unemployment is compelling more job seekers to relocate, despite the challenges of selling a home in this market,” Challenger said.

“At some point, the job seeker may simply conclude that it is worth taking a loss on a home sale to get back on the payroll,” he said. It’s also possible that employers are becoming more willing to help employees relocate.

Before the recession it was more common for people move for a job, according to the report. About 16.1% of people who found jobs each quarter between the first quarter of 2005 and the third quarter of 2007 relocated for the position. But at that time, selling a house wasn’t nearly as difficult as it is in today’s climate.

Read more real-estate news in this week’s pages, including why the foreclosure rate is on the rise in Seattle and a Realty Q&A about one reader’s struggle with his lender.

Employment markets in some parts of the country are recovering faster than others, and in a job search, “when you cast a wider net, you are more likely to catch more fish,” Challenger said.

But these days, if you’re a homeowner, casting a wider net often means you also have to be OK with taking a loss on the sale of your home.

posted by GreatLondonPubs @ 11:16 AM   0 comments
Gross domestic product expanded at a paltry 1.3% annual rate in the second quarter

A new government report on the nation’s output showed the economy in much weaker shape than anticipated, casting doubt on the strength of the expected recovery in the final six months of the year.

Gross domestic product expanded at a paltry 1.3% annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday, below the 1.6% growth rate that economists anticipated. See MarketWatch economic calendar.

But it was a drastic downward revision to first-quarter GDP growth that stole the show — and set economists on edge.

The new data on the inflation- and seasonally-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States showed the economy barely grew at all in the January-through-March quarter, rising just 0.4% as opposed to the initially reported 1.9% improvement. At the same time, the government said the recession proved to be deeper than initially projected.See related story about the depth of the ‘Great Recession’.

Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo, called the GDP report a “game-changer.”

Congress might have to temper its zeal to slash government spending as part of any increase in the debt ceiling, he said.

Should investors panic over default?

Despite the ongoing nervousness over the debt negotiations, there’s no disputing that U.S. Treasurys remain some of the safest investments there are. (Photo: Reuters.)

“It does raise some legitimate questions how quickly we can rein in government spending without doing more harm than good,” Vitner said.

Stocks stayed in negative territory Friday but rose off their session lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 57 points to 12,183. The DJIA has lost about 4% for the week, the largest decline in about a year.

In the bond market, Treasury prices10_YEAR -3.97% extended gains, pushing 10-year note yields under 2.90%.

included revised growth estimates for the last three years.

And in currencies, the dollar DXY -0.42% felt pressure in the face of buying in the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Read more on debt fears weighing on the dollar and the euro.


posted by GreatLondonPubs @ 11:14 AM   0 comments
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