May 2, 2012

EUR / USD there remain opportunities





The harsh austerity programs in many crisis countries have now also been booming business in Germany felt. This makes the already difficult situation of the producers worsened in April, even. In the euro-zone purchasing managers' index slipped by 1.8 points from 45.9, as the Markit Institute announced on Wednesday his survey of 3000 companies. This is the worst figure since just three years away, and the barometer thus further from the 50-point mark, is signaled from the growth.

It looks bleak now made in Italy. There, the industrial index fell to 43.8 points from 47.9 points from March. This is the sharpest drop since October, when Silvio Berlusconi was in power and his country was trying to avoid reforms. Experts had only a slight decline to 47.0 points on the list.

The slump in demand from home and abroad made sure that the orders in the third-largest economy in the common currency for the past eleven months in a row on a downward slide are: with an index value of 39.2 points was the lowest level in more than three years achieved. At the same time, unemployment is rising: it reached 9.8 percent, the highest rate since the beginning of Statistics 2004th "The number of unemployed is terribly high," said ING economist Martin van Vliet. The bad news triggered losses on the European stock markets and put pressure on the euro.

"HARD HIT BY SAVING PROGRAMS"

The weakness is not limited only to crisis countries such as Spain, Greece and Italy. Only in Austria and Ireland, the barometer still signaled growth. "Since a large proportion of trade in industrial goods between the euro countries is happening, have the demand shortfall from the fighting with harsh austerity programs debt countries of southern Europe increasingly negative impact on the entire euro zone," said Williamson. "Obviously, in Germany, which show the recent production cuts there."

The business of the German industry were therefore not as bad as in nearly three years. The purchasing managers' index for the sector fell by 2.2 points to 46.2. That's the worst reading since July 2009. "The repeated demand, the companies has led to production cuts, which could be prevented even by the rapid processing of the backlog," said Markit economist Tim Moore. The company therefore had first cut since March, 2010 points.

The data are, however, in stark contrast to the monthly survey by the Ifo Institute. The Ifo business climate brightened up in April, already the sixth month in a row - mainly because of the booming industry. They assessed both their current situation and the prospects for the next six months be better, stronger and more congested in their capacity to create more jobs. Experts explain the discrepancy with the fact that Markit polls, especially large companies, while the Ifo Institute also includes smaller firms that are more robust domestic market of life and from a lower export demand affected not so strong.

Even the major export market, China does not yet again: The Purchasing Managers' Index rose for the banking giant HSBC, the emerging market to 49.3 points in April to 48.3 points in March. He was nevertheless the sixth consecutive month below 50 meters

Arkit: INDUSTRY PAYS NOT TO FAST TURNAROUND

"The euro zone industry in April slipped deeper into recession," said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson. "The fact that the face of mounting job losses so many jobs have been cut not seen for over two years indicated, moreover, suggests that the industry players do not expect as fast a turnaround."

The plight of the labor market is also the view of the official statistics significantly. Accordingly, the unemployment rate in the euro zone in March to a record high of 10.9 percent, as Eurostat announced. Even in Germany the spring recovery is weakening in the labor market: Excluding the seasonal fluctuations, the number of unemployed rose by 19,000 in April.

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