Aug 1, 2008
WTO after the failure of Geneva, little progress in sight before 2009
WTO after the failure of Geneva, little progress in sight before 2009
The failure of negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva this week has probably postponed until 2009 any progress in trade liberalization, even if some countries calling for early resumption of discussions.
For Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University and Nobel laureate in economics, "the talks could resume only after the American elections", especially since it is "difficult to negotiate an agreement when unemployment rises" and that the economy is weakening.
An opinion shared by Elie Cohen, director of research at CNRS. "We will await the arrival of the next U.S. administration."
India, heavyweight WTO, is expected to hold elections at the end of 2008, which does not his government concessions.
Some countries do not hide their satisfaction at seeing the Doha Round bogged down, like Italy. She is part of a group of 9 European countries, including France and Ireland, who felt that Europe had dropped too much weight compared to its trading partners.
The french minister of Agriculture Michel Barnier has suggested opening discussions on agricultural products, which he describes as "strategic assets" to other institutions, such as the Organization of the United Nations for the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) or the International Monetary Fund.
A typical argument "protectionist", Elie Cohen.
Joseph Stiglitz said it is difficult to move the negotiations to other forums, despite their complexity. "As with many issues together in one forum, it is easier to find compromises," he says.
The Brazilian President Lula, whose country was one of the main beneficiaries of a new agreement on trade liberalization, suggested him to convene a meeting of Heads of State to make a "political solution" to the Doha Round, began in 2001.
The EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson has also called for a resumption as early as this autumn discussions, an opinion shared by Germany.
The technical meetings could resume this fall, "as soon as possible after September 15", indicated Friday a source close to the WTO.
Before a final agreement, Elie Cohen expects the proliferation of bilateral or regional conventions, as requested including the National Commission of Agriculture of Brazil.
They have greatly increased since the Uruguay Round, the round before the Doha because "some countries may find an incentive to negotiate more on lines closer," says Cohen.
But this type of agreement complicates global trade and could disadvantage the weakest countries "when the USA only negotiate with Colombia", the latter is a worse position than in "a global agreement liberalization, "argues Mr. Cohen.
The impasse at the WTO should not wear a fatal blow to international trade, which was "formidablement developed since the Uruguay Round, with a growth of 6% per annum," he says.
"The agreements already in place to protect against slippage. We had hoped mainly progress," adds Mr. Stiglitz.
Mainly for developing countries. The African cotton producers of C4 (Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso and Chad) expected a decline in Chinese and U.S. subsidies on cotton.
They returned without even being able to initiate negotiations. Their industry, which sustains 20 million people, is now threatened with disparitio
by erectusplus at 4:39 AM |
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